Wall Street Panicked on Friday and Then Changed Its Mind by the Close

Published: Sunday November 01, 2026 @ 14:34 EST
Duration: 37.32 minutes
Views: 371
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 46 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode digs into a spooky Friday, when the volatility market reawakened after a calm week, and how realized vol, correlations, and market mechanics shifted into the weekend.

Topics covered:

-HRV and EWS models: HRV swings from green to orange while EWS resets to a clean slate
-VIX complex: divergences washed out, overvixing to undervixing in one session, and a flat VX curve with no cushion
-Realized vol and the VRP: SPX realized vol breaking out of its range under a still-fat premium
-Volatility composition and correlations: implied and realized correlations starting to activate, with the CRP still in its normal band
-Market mechanics: rotation breaking down at the index level while the mega-cap basket holds up
-Treasuries and credit: falling rates, a sticky MOVE, rising breakevens, and high yield spreads widening off bargain-basement levels

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Selloff Is Real, but the Fear Never Showed Up

Published: Sunday October 25, 2026 @ 14:09 EDT
Duration: 29.07 minutes
Views: 422
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 45 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode introduces some new tools I’ve been building along with a review of all the regulars. We’ve got a very flat VIX futures curve as the NASDAQ leads equities lower, but I still think there are better ways to play a selloff than by getting long vol.

Topics covered:
-HRV and EWS models: both back in the yellow zone, holding in there but cautionary
-VIX, VVIX and the S&P: SPX makes a lower low while VIX and VVIX don’t confirm
-VIX futures and the VRP: an unnerving shape of the VX curve but a near 10-point VRP puts the onus on realized vol to snap higher
-Volatility composition: a new weekly breakdown of what’s driving VIX
-Implied vs. realized correlation: a new correlation risk premium measure, and an index that stays cool as a cucumber
-Treasuries and market mechanics: MOVE climbing as rates fall, and a release valve in NASDAQ vol

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Stocks Fell All Day and the Fear Gauge Quietly Gave Up

Published: Sunday October 18, 2026 @ 13:15 EDT
Duration: 31.55 minutes
Views: 587
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 44 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode looks at the volatility market waking up as the front of the VIX futures curve inverted, along with how healthy market mechanics kept vols in check for most of the week before Friday’s selling. A lot changed in the final session of the week, so I spent much of the time dissecting what actually happened, why, and what it means going into next week.

Topics covered:
-HRV and EWS models: both flashing cautionary signals, with HRV the one I’m tracking into next week
-VIX futures term structure: the front of the curve inverts, and the expiration cycle makes for a tough trade
-Overvixing, a rich variance risk premium, and a late-day VIX/VVIX divergence: signs of a market overreaction
-Volatility composition: single-stock vol driving the move while correlations stay low
-Market mechanics: the Dow and rotating mega-cap support keeping vols calm all week, until Friday
-Treasuries and credit: rates pressure easing, and a split between high yield and investment grade

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Number Keeping This Market Calm Just Hit Zero

Published: Sunday October 11, 2026 @ 13:11 EDT
Duration: 30.85 minutes
Views: 359
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 43 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode spends extra time on market mechanics. It looks at how rotation among the mega-caps and the major indices kept the volatility market calm through a choppy back half of the week. Topics covered:

HRV and EWS models: both back in healthy territory as Treasury stress eases
VIX futures term structure: October VX slowly converging on spot VIX
Wednesday through Friday, session by session: Apple holding the line, the OpenAI headline, and the Dow and Russell taking over
Realized and implied correlations: why low co-movement is keeping index vol in check
Treasuries and credit: the MOVE index off its highs, spreads stabilizing, and crowded positioning in TLT calls and Russell shorts

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Rates Are Rising and the Rest of the Market Hasn't Caught Up Yet

Published: Sunday September 27, 2026 @ 15:23 EDT
Duration: 30.72 minutes
Views: 722
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 41 of Vol Street Journal™!

Rates markets took center stage last week so that’s where the majority of my focus landed in this week’s episode. After a quick review of the market models and VIX complex, I examine a big jump in Treasury volatility, an acceleration in 10-year yields, and a rare buildup of correlation dislocations across credit, currency, and equity markets—all flashing troubling signals even as rotational mechanics and the VIX futures curve continue to point to stability in equity indices.

Topics covered this week:

-Yield acceleration and a breakout in the MOVE index
-Persistent VIX futures contango and healthy mechanics
-Significant differences in the variance risk premium across time
-Implied correlations touching down at cautionary levels (again)
-High-yield bonds diverging from equities
-Correlation extremes across banking, the US dollar, and rates

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Stocks Fell on Fed Day and the VIX Barely Flinched

Published: Sunday September 20, 2026 @ 13:20 EDT
Duration: 29.17 minutes
Views: 504
Likes: 7
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 40 of Vol Street Journal™!

In episode 40 of Vol Street Journal, I review market behavior in response to the FOMC's rate hike, VIX futures expiration, and quarterly OpEx. I also examine the two market models, divergence signals in the VOL complex, market mechanics, and trends across Treasury and credit markets.

Topics covered:

-Healthy readings from the HRV and EWS models
-Broad volatility surface divergences and undervixing during FOMC
-October/November VIX futures spread flattening and contango cushion
-Single-stock volatility consolidation
-Mega-cap basket rotation and index correlation dispersion
-Rate-of-change deceleration in 10-year yields and MOVE Index response
-High-yield credit spread behavior alongside LQD/IEF ratio trends

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Stocks Rallied on the Odds of a Rate Hike

Published: Sunday September 13, 2026 @ 13:53 EDT
Duration: 28.02 minutes
Views: 778
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

Welcome to Episode 39 of Vol Street Journal™!

My first full week back from vacation did not disappoint. Rates are on the move and equity vol attempted to breakout, yet bears still have their work cut out for them.

In this week’s episode, I evaluate deteriorating signals from both market models alongside an attempt by VIX to move from a compression regime into an expansion regime. I also review over/undervixing dynamics, changes in the VIX futures curve, a divergence between single-stock volatility and implied correlation, accelerating front-end Treasury yields, and the MOVE Index breaking above its summer range.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Market Is Coiling Tighter Than It Has All Year

Published: Sunday September 06, 2026 @ 13:25 EDT
Duration: 31.03 minutes
Views: 829
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

This week I evaluate whether the broad-based compression across equity and volatility markets has pushed realized and implied volatility to unsustainable levels. I also review recovering market health models, a noteworthy shift in the dynamic between single-stock volatility and implied correlation, the Treasury market’s response following Jackson Hole, and a divergence in corporate credit spreads.

Topics covered this week:

-HRV and Early Warning System model updates
-Realized volatility compression, comatose VIX and VVIX, and VIX futures contango
-Evolving dynamics between individual stock volatility and implied correlations
-Subdued Treasury volatility despite rising rates and inflation break-evens
-Credit market spread dynamics and a sign of "risk-on" activity in corporate debt

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

This Market Is So Healthy It's Starting to Worry Me

Published: Sunday August 16, 2026 @ 14:47 EDT
Duration: 27.65 minutes
Views: 227
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

As for this episode...

PROGRAMMING NOTE: There will be no Vol Street Journal episode for the next two weeks. I’ll be back in early September after my summer break.

This week I evaluate whether the volatility crush has become over-extended. I also review improving market models, a noteworthy divergence in volatility composition, the Treasury market’s response to the latest inflation data, and follow-up on positioning in equity futures.

Topics covered this week:

-HRV and Early Warning System model updates
-Historic contango and spread expansion across VIX timeframes and futures
-Divergences between VIX and 1-month implied correlations
-Treasury curve steepening and credit market volatility compression
-COT positioning dynamics and relative value index pair trades

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Stocks Went Up. So Did Fear

Published: Sunday August 09, 2026 @ 12:55 EDT
Duration: 31.58 minutes
Views: 212
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

As for this episode...

I review recent improvements across my market models and break down some unusual price action within the VIX complex, particularly on Friday. I also revisit the dynamics between individual stock volatility, implied correlations, and index vol, as well as movements in credit spreads and shifting equity futures positioning.

Topics this week include:

-Market HRV model recovery alongside ongoing EWS cautionary signals
-VIX decomposition, parallel curve shifts, and over/undervixing
-Market up/vol up → market down/vol down
-VVIX coiling signal and subtle VIX futures disconnect
-VIXEQ’s impact on index vol
-Why speculator positioning in index futures points to a rotation back into Nasdaq

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Two Tech Giants Crushed Earnings. The Market Crushed Them Back.

Published: Sunday July 26, 2026 @ 20:18 EDT
Duration: 25.35 minutes
Views: 178
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

As for this episode...

This week’s episode breaks down post-expiration VIX futures dynamics, an important change in the trajectory of single-stock volatility, and why we shouldn’t ignore that mega-cap tech earnings are getting rejected by the market.

Topics covered this week:

-HRV and EWS model outputs putting numbers to the chaos
-Changes across the VIX futures curve
-Rollover in VIXEQ as earnings start to heat up
-More “good news/bad reactions” in important names
-No reason for the S&P to be down on Friday, yet it was
-Growing divergence between the 10-year rate and Treasury vol

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Market Just Rejected the Best News It Could Get

Published: Sunday July 19, 2026 @ 21:11 EDT
Duration: 32.75 minutes
Views: 226
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: For a quick tour of Vixed Signals—how I use the volatility complex, market mechanics, my models, and other factors to frame these episodes—watch the overview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_kf1dyrXA

As for this episode...

This week I review a volatile period of trading that has triggered notable degradation across market models and volatility curves. The discussion focuses on a flattening VIX futures curve, rising mega-cap correlations, and the market’s recent tendency to reject strong corporate earnings.
Topics explored this week:
--“Whippy” readings from the Heart Rate Variability and Early Warning System models throughout the week.
--The compression of the VIX futures curve and erosion of the structural insulation ahead of the July VX contract expiration.
--Rising 10-day correlations among mega-cap equities alongside a multi-day pickup in protective put demand.
--Negative price reactions to positive corporate updates across sector mainstays like Micron, TSMC, and ASML.
--A historic correlation dislocation building between the US Dollar Index and crude oil futures amidst extreme positioning.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://vixedsignals.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Last Time This Number Got This Low, the VIX Exploded

Published: Sunday July 12, 2026 @ 18:51 EDT
Duration: 30.48 minutes
Views: 351
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 33 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines the divergence between positive equity index momentum and building stress within underlying volatility and credit markets. I analyze recent behavior in the two market models, tracking how healthy mechanics coexist with historic extremes in implied correlation, sticky vol-of-vol, and early signs of credit stress.
Topics explored:

* Diverging signals between the Heart Rate Variability and Early Warning System models.

* The VIX futures curve and the impact of its current shape, especially as it relates to the front of the curve and spot VIX.

* Index rotation shifts between low-beta indices and high-beta technology.

* Implied correlation tracking at historic lows as implied vol on individual stocks keeps climbing - are we priced for perfection?

* Widening credit spreads and more evidence of “risk off’” activity in interest rate markets.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

This Market Just Did Something It Hasn't Done in Two Years

Published: Sunday July 05, 2026 @ 19:17 EDT
Duration: 30.40 minutes
Views: 249
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 32 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines the divergence between the HRV and EWS models alongside a multi-year low in implied correlations. The discussion details the current volatility landscape, important correlations to watch, as well as shifting trends within credit markets.

Topics explored this week:

* The green zone recovery of the HRV model contrasted against an elevated EWS model reading.

* One-month implied correlations testing a 5-handle and the historical parallel to a prior “Yen carry trade” unwind.

* An emerging negative variance risk premium amid chronic “undervixing”.

* Rotational mechanics amongst the basket of tracked mega-cap stocks as well as the major equity indices.

* A correlation breakdown between the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE index.
Credit market trends evaluated through baseline spreads and the rolling over of the LQD to IEF ratio.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Something Has Been Quietly Building in This Market for Weeks :: VSJ Ep 31

Published: Sunday June 28, 2026 @ 13:21 EDT
Duration: 32.07 minutes
Views: 432
Likes: 18
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 31 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines a series of shifting conditions across my proprietary market models, volatility complex, currency, and credit markets that point to growing market vulnerability. I break down the developments and explain why the risk environment has changed.

* Proprietary Models: Both models have been flashing warning signs for weeks, and Friday sent the EWS model to its highest, most cautionary level since the early days of the Iran conflict.

* VIX Futures: The front of the futures curve is flattening as spot VIX tightens its gap to the July contract and the July-August spread compresses.

* Chronic Undervixing: Realized volatility continues to climb while implied volatility lags, squeezing the variance risk premium as individual stock volatilities rise.

* Positioning Dynamics: Speculators are heavily long the Dow and strongly bought the S&P dip, alongside crowded long positions in the US Dollar and short positions in major cross currencies.

* Credit Market Stress: High-yield and investment-grade spreads are beginning to widen from very tight levels as capital rotates toward Treasuries and equities start to follow high yield bonds lower.

Watch the full analysis to see how these factors are stacking up.

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Market Found Its Footing... Just Don't Look Too Closely :: VSJ Ep 30

Published: Sunday June 21, 2026 @ 18:04 EDT
Duration: 34.90 minutes
Views: 201
Likes: 5
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 30 of Vol Street Journal™!

It was a short but eventful week in markets as equities and VOLs try to find their footing in an environment where macro headlines, the Fed, major IPOs, and significant expirations are all impacting flows. There are signals amidst the noise if you’ve got your radio tuned.

Topics explored in this week’s episode:

* The state of the VIX futures term structure post-June VX expiration
* Compression of the 30-day variance risk premium as SPX realized volatility climbs
* Recovery and lingering data hangovers within the HRV and EWS proprietary frameworks
* The implication of implied correlations compressing back to historically low levels
* Rising mega-cap correlations
* The impact of Thursday’s quarterly OpEx on the SPX pin at 7500
* Shifting short and long-term interest rate trends ahead of the first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Selloff That Forgot to Become a Crisis

Published: Sunday June 14, 2026 @ 16:42 EDT
Duration: 29.63 minutes
Views: 196
Likes: 10
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 29 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode explores the evolution of the volatility market throughout the equity drawdown between June 5th and June 10th. It evaluates the role the VIX futures curve played in absorbing the sell-off and stabilizing the broader market, which set the stage for the late-week recovery. Topics discussed:

* The preservation of VIX futures contango and resetting of the market’s defensive cushion
* Recent trajectory shifts within the HRV and EWS proprietary market models
* Rapid contractions in one-month implied correlations and single-stock implied volatility
* Internal equity market rotation favoring small-caps and banks over mega-cap technology
* A developing multi-week divergence between high-yield corporate bonds and the S&P

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

The Stock Market Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks — Here's Why

Published: Sunday June 07, 2026 @ 14:59 EDT
Duration: 32.63 minutes
Views: 339
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 28 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode analyzes the significant shifts in the volatility market following Friday’s widespread equity sell-off, tracking how a multi-week compression regime ended in a rapid volatility expansion. I break down what I saw early in Thursday and Friday’s sessions that spoke to two very different situations and what this may mean heading into Monday.

Topics discussed this week:

* Substantial shifts in the HRV and EWS models as they move into cautionary and dangerous territory.
* A massive surge in COR1M as implied correlation morphs from a volatility dampener to an accelerator.
* A structural change in the VIX futures curve as it shifts higher and flattens.
* The tightening gap between index volatility and individual stock volatility.
* A comparative study of market mechanics between Thursday and Friday.

The data points to a meaningful change in the risk environment going into next week where the market’s ability to absorb future selling has been compromised but not yet fully depleted.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Stocks Are Surging, Volatility Is Dead, and One Number Just Made History

Published: Sunday May 31, 2026 @ 13:01 EDT
Duration: 25.93 minutes
Views: 268
Likes: 16
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 27 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode analyzes the robust structural health and mechanical strength supporting the ongoing equity market advance. I look at the data confirming underlying market stability despite a compressed volatility environment.

The main topics covered include:

* The drop in the 1-Month Implied Correlation Index (COR1M) to a historic closing print of 6.33%.
* The strong “risk on” regimes sustained across the proprietary Market HRV and Early Warning frameworks.
* The negative pairwise correlations within mega-cap stocks driving active market dispersion.
* The steep contango and deep structural cushion within the VIX futures term structure.
* A follow-up look at one declining measure of market liquidity.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Bad News Every Day — Stocks Keep Going Up. Here's Why. :: VSJ Ep 26

Published: Sunday May 24, 2026 @ 13:51 EDT
Duration: 30.02 minutes
Views: 263
Likes: 14
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 26 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines underlying market resilience and the volatility complex following a strong stretch through the first three weeks of May. I analyze why structural market health continues to defy daily geopolitical headlines and other stressors. Topics discussed:

* The design, upward trajectory, and current status of the proprietary Market HRV framework
* VIX’s compression regime and why it matters to markets
* The evolution of the VX curve throughout May, and how June VX’s reign as the front month is starting off
* Volatility composition dynamics following Nvidia earnings
* Rotational mechanics between the major equity indices
* Relief within fixed income markets and its impact on the broader landscape
* A surprising drop in liquidity worth monitoring

The full deep-dive session is available below.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE